MISSISSIPPI VOTES TOMORROW – AT 3:44 P.M. ET:   A special runoff election in Mississippi tomorrow will decide whether the GOP holds on to a seat in the US Senate, or loses it, in an upset, to a Democrat.  If the Republicans hold, fine.  That will mean a plus two result in the recent Senate elections, strengthening the party's hand in confirming judges.

But if the Republican candidate is upset, that will mean a gain of only one seat for Mitch McConnell's majority.  Not exactly a triumph.  From CNN:

The Mississippi Senate runoff was expected to be a quiet finale to the 2018 election season but instead has turned into a nationally watched affair.

Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith's comments about attending a "public hanging," along with a series of other controversies, have led to critical media coverage and several companies publicly disavowing her.

But while her statements and actions may make Tuesday's special Senate election a closer affair than it might otherwise have been, make no mistake: she is a heavy favorite against Democrat Mike Espy.
Mississippi is as red as they come. It hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976. The last Democrat elected to the Senate was John Stennis in 1982. The last Democrat elected governor was Ronnie Musgrove in 1999.

Mississippi's redness showed no sign of abating when voters went to the polls earlier this month. Republicans Hyde-Smith and Chris McDaniel combined for 58% of the vote in the jungle primary, while Democrats Tobey Bartee and Espy combined for 42%. That doesn't look very different from Republican President Donald Trump's 18-point 2016 victory in the state.

It shouldn't be too surprising that there wasn't much movement off the 2016 baseline. Mississippi Democrats seem to have a low ceiling in Senate elections. No Democrat has come closer than 8 points to a Republican in the last 30 years. Only two Democrats have come within single digits.

COMMENT:  We can be guardedly optimistic.  The president is in Mississippi today, and clearly his intent is to drive Republicans to the polls.  We'll get the verdict tomorrow night.

November 26, 2018